Iranian authorities are considering the transfer of hundreds of thousands of Afghani migrants across its western borders into Iraq and Turkey. This step forms part of what authorities call as a necessarily more offensive and unpredictable strategy following the attacks on its nuclear facilities and the European reimposition of UN sanctions.
Comprehensive Strategy Includes Expansion of Missile Development
The multi-pronged offensive encompasses expansion of its missile programme, strengthening air defences, suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog and, on October 18, preventing the formation of a United Nations panel to supervise the implementation of the restored penalties. Officials remain opposed to resuming negotiations with the United States, convinced that discussions would not succeed.
Migrant Warning Mirrors Erdoğan's Warning
The warning about migrant movement in a western direction as well as the east has echoes of the warning issued by the leader of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who warned of sending millions of Syrian refugees towards Europe.
Iran has at times been host to up to six million Afghan refugees, but human rights groups state that in the current year, one million Afghans were returned to Afghanistan, after escaping economic hardship or Taliban control.
The organization alleged the mass expulsions had been scaled up following Israel’s 12 June attacks on Tehran's officials and nuclear facilities. It estimates 500,000 Afghans have been sent back across the frontier since June.
Document Nullification for Afghan Refugees
Until March 2025, several million Afghans were allowed to legally reside temporarily in Iran by securing a registration paper. Holders of this permit were eligible for restricted benefits, such as public health services, schooling, employment permits, financial services and the right to make housing contracts. However, officials invalidated these registration papers.
The Tehran government have provided varying numbers about the number of Afghan refugees in the country, but it is thought a minimum of 2 million are in Iran illegally. The UN high commissioner for refugees forecasts that as many as four million Afghans could be returned to their homeland in the coming months.
Comprehensive Plan of Repair and Recovery Under Way
A wide-ranging reconstruction effort is ongoing in Iran, including a discussion about the tools it possesses to protect itself after the Israeli-US attacks in the summer. Tehran has called back its diplomats from European nations for consultations at the foreign ministry in Tehran about the situation.
Authorities are hesitant about leaving the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, partly since the significant measures were already implemented to halt collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Diplomatic Proposals and International Response
Iranian officials confirm that in discussions with the French at the United Nations meeting, Iran offered to allow weapons inspectors to inspect the damaged facility at the Natanz complex, and additionally suggested to report on its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in under two months. In return, Tehran sought the threat of the return of UN sanctions to be lifted permanently, instead of a temporary suspension, the initial proposal from France.
Tehran alleges the US refused to engage with these offers, which Iran views as has become an increasingly erratic and amateurish American diplomacy led by Steve Witkoff, a man that the Iranians regard as either uninformed or deceitful. Witkoff, for instance had sent the Iranian representatives heading to the UN details of a meeting he planned to conduct with Iranian officials, but he then scrapped the meeting altogether.
Forthcoming Negotiation Conflict and Russian Role
In the anticipated negotiation dispute with the US, analysts predict that on 18 October Russia, which holds the rotating presidency of the security council, will use its power as a permanent council member to block the establishment of a United Nations committee to monitor and oversee the penalties restored by the European Union.
Russia and China have sent letters to the UN leader, António Guterres, to say EU nations lacked the authority to reimpose the penalties as they did in late September, as they believe Europe was no longer a participant in the nuclear deal, and had not used the dispute resolution mechanism.
The impasse suggests that certain nations will not comply with the implementation of UN penalties. Japan, Canada and Turkey have already started to restore the penalties, but states aligned with Russia and China will refuse. The Turkish president, Erdoğan, for instance, issued a presidential decree mandating financial blocks on Iranian individuals and entities associated with Iran's atomic projects and major state banks.
Impact of Sanctions on Iranian Economy
Authorities state the most severe penalties on the country are the current American restrictions, and in contrast the reinstated UN measures originally from 2006-2010 are relatively narrow, as they exclude Iran’s oil programme but rather targeted financial blocks, arms limits and prohibitions on missile sales.
However, Iran acknowledges that even the limited restoration of UN penalties is having an impact investor trust and on the exchange rate. The value of the US dollar in Iran’s free market has set a new record.
